Monday, October 06, 2008

3% Days Becoming The Norm

The days of low volatility that occurred from '04-'06 are distant memories in the minds of traders these days. Oh what we all wouldn't give for just a week of sub-1% moves! Over the last month (23 trading days), the S&P 500 has seen 10 days where the index rose or fell (mostly fell) by more than 3%. You have to go all the way back to 1938 to find another one-month period where there were this many 3% days. As shown in the chart below, there were many multi-year periods between 1950 and 2007 where the S&P 500 didn't have even one 3% day. If you're not a regular market participant and someone that is tells you we are experiencing something that hasn't happened since the Great Depression, they're not joking!

3days

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Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.