One and Two Percent Days Becoming the Norm

A whopping 44 of the last 90 trading days have been moves of 1% (+/-) or more in the S&P 500. Fifteen of the last 90 trading days have been 2% days. Below we provide a historical rolling 90-day sum of 1% and 2% days in the index. While we've been constantly reading and hearing that the current period of volatility is unlike anything ever seen before, it isn't. As shown, the number of 1% days reached 64 out of 90 back in October 2002, 56 out of 90 back in 1988, and 54 out of 90 back in 1974. And the 15 out of 90 that have been 2% days are nowhere near the highs reached during those periods either. The reason why so many people are so frantic about volatility is because it was extremely low preceding the current period. As shown, it was rare to see a 1% day from about 2004 to 2007, and 2% days were non-existent.