Wednesday, November 27, 2013

David Tepper Says Market Isn't a Bubble: His Thoughts on Valuation, Tapering, Airlines & More

After the Robin Hood Investors Conference last week, Appaloosa Management founder David Tepper sat down with Bloomberg TV to talk about the markets.

On market valuation: He does not think we're in a bubble now as he compared P/E multiples over the last 5 years to the 5-year period running up to the 2000 bubble.  Stocks now have seen little change in multiples, while stocks back then saw huge multiple expansion.

On airlines:  "Our big play versus the market is the airlines.  We're the biggest holder of many of these airlines." 

On his 2014 investing approach: "We'll probably stay long.  We recently put on a treasury short, to hedge ourselves against the equity markets.  Little bit scared of tapering... higher rates... though rates won't go that high."

On to be worried about: "I would be worried if I was a long/short guy and not long enough, that's what I'd be worried about.  But I'm not worried, because I am long.  But if I'm a L/S guy who can only go 60% long ... the biggest risk for the market is you'll have multiple expansion, higher growth, 10% earnings growth next year, and you'll have another year of 20-30% (performance)."

On J.C. Penney (JCP): "It was a tiny position... a trade and we're done."

On Twitter (TWTR):  They would have held Twitter longer, but they had a price target in the $40's and so when the stock hit that in the first days of trading, he exited.  "It's a discipline."

On Citigroup (C):  "Citi still has some pretty good upside, we think it can make 7 bucks a share."

On his performance this year:  "I think gross we're in the 40's (%)."

On tapering:  He does think it's time to start tapering. He also said: "There can be a short-term negative reaction.  But if you're tapering, it's because there's stronger underlying US growth.  And if there's growth, there's going to be higher P/E multiples and the market should be higher.  If the market goes down, that's great, it'll be one more opportunity that people will be come and buy."

On what a lower Japanese Yen means: "It means higher P/E multiples in Japanese companies, straight out.  That's the way it works, because they're such exporters. So when you have a weaker yen, you have higher earnings."

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Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.