Even after today's rally of over 4%, the S&P 500 remains more than 13% below its 50-day moving average (DMA) and over 30% below its 200-DMA. In order to reach the 50-DMA, the S&P would have to rally an additional 15.1%. While a rally of 15% seems within the realm of possibility, the market still has a ways to go if it has any chance of reaching its 200-DMA. With the S&P 500 now trading 32.5% below its 200-DMA of 1,055, it would have to rally by more than 48% to close that gap.
On a historical basis, the current spread between the S&P 500 and its 200-DMA is near the most negative levels in the index's history. As shown below, when the S&P 500 made its 2008 low on November 20, 2008, the spread between the S&P 500's price and 200-DMA reached -39.5%. The only other time that this level was exceeded was back in late 1931 and early 1932.