Tuesday, February 17, 2009

The "Test" Is Here

The much awaited "test" of the November lows is here for the Dow Jones Industrials Average. While this is quite depressing while it's occurring, it's a normal part of a "bottoming process" if the bottom is indeed being made. If the market holds and can bounce off of these levels over the next few days, those hoping that the lows are in will breathe a sigh of relief. If, however, this support level breaks and the market heads lower, the last three months of a "bottoming process" will be a complete waste, and the cycle will have to be repeated again once a new short-term bottom is put in.


A number of indicators are showing that the market in its current state looks much better than it did in November. We have detailed these in Bespoke Premium reports over the past few weeks, but one of them is the fact that recent declines have been concentrated in just one or two sectors. As shown below, Financials and Consumer Staples are the only two sectors that have gone down since November 20th, with Financials declining the most at -11.8%. On the other hand, four sectors are still up more than 10%, even though the market as a whole is flat. These four sectors include Consumer Discretionary, Materials, Technology, and Health Care.


No comments:

Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.