Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Checkup on Volatility

We've been highlighting the record volatility that we've seen in this market for some time now, and below is a chart showing where things currently stand. On December 9th, volatility peaked when the S&P 500 saw its 50-day average absolute daily percent change hit a whopping 4.02%. Things have definitely settled down quite a bit since then, making the current environment seem downright boring. Over the last 50 days, the average daily move for the S&P 500 has been +/-2.52%. But even though things seem quiet now, 2.52% is still in the top 2% of volatility periods since 1927. While volatility has declined in relative terms versus the fourth quarter, we're still in "crazy" territory on an absolute basis.


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Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.