Today's initial GDP reading of 0.6% was the lowest since the first quarter of 2007. GDP was this low just 3 quarters ago, so it's not that out of the ordinary. And it's important to remember that the number will be revised two more times before it is final. It could go higher, but it could also go lower. Below we highlight the historical final annualized GDP numbers going back to 1947 (4Q '07 is the only one that is not a final number). We also highlight with red dots any time that GDP was less than 1%. While a drop below 1% often times means we'll end up getting 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, it doesn't always mean it will happen. In fact, while the NBER declared a recession in 2001, we haven't had 2 consecutive quarters of actual negative GDP growth since 1991.
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