Futures Market Winners/Losers of 2014

This year was anything but boring in the futures markets. There were plenty of major moves in multiple markets, and it seems just about every market not at 5 year highs (stocks, the US Dollar, and cattle) was at 5 year lows (Crude, Copper, Yen).  That’s in stark contrast to the past few years, where there’s been more markets up than down.  But it was two black liquids stealing the headlines – with Coffee leading the way on the upside, and Crude Oil the big loser on the downside. All those who had the Long Coffee/Short Oil trade on, take a bow – that’s a winner! (What could we call that – the Texas Latte, the Beans over Barrel spread?)

[Please note – Finviz does some weird things around contract rolls, which can make their percentage gains over longer periods different than what would be found using a continuous contract or the cash/spot market, nonetheless, we feel it is representative of each market’s 2013 movements]:

(Disclaimer: Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results)
Chart Courtesy: Finviz

• It was a mostly down year, with 63% of markets down; compared with 51% up in ‘13, 80% up in ‘12, and 85% up in 2010
• While it seemed more volatile this year, just 15 markets finished up or down more than 15% (compared with 16 last year).
• Having said that – VIX futures finished about 20% higher than where they started the year, despite stocks at all time highs (curious)
• US Stocks & US Bonds turned in near identical performances in 2014, both up around 12%. Not every day you see that.
• Commodity markets were routed. Crude made the headlines, but Cotton, Soybeans, Rice, Oats, Platinum, Sugar and more were all down double digits.
• Gold, for all the headlines, was basically unchanged
• Currencies were in play, for the first time in what seems like forever, with the USD making a very sneaky move up to multi year highs; the Japanese Yen and Canadian Dollar hitting 5 year lows, and the Euro, Aussie, and Swiss testing multi-year lows.
• The headliner Coffee was up impressively, but despite being up around 50%, it’s still about 50% below its 2011 highs (needs to rise 100% or so to get there)
• Many markets are at 5 year lows, including:  energy futures (Crude, Heating, Gasoline), many metals (Silver, Platinum, & Copper), currencies (Jap Yen and Canadian Dollar), and a few random like Cotton,
• Wheat & Corn – Despite being some of the most volatile futures markets, you wouldn’t know it by this chart, down only (-1.9% and 4.7%) this year

So what will 2015 bring? A big rebound in Oil prices (a rise back to $80/barrel would be a gain of about 60%)? The much expected sell off in US treasuries? A commodity rebound in metals, softs, and grains? None of the above?

Luckily, professional managers don’t need to know the answers in order to have a successful 2015. They just need to be able to identify and capture any such moves when they happen (no small task, to be sure; as we’ve seen in recent years….but more than a few will be up to the task).