Monday, May 17, 2010

Too Early for "Not This Again"?

The pickup in volatility over the last couple of weeks has some investors saying "not this again," as memories of 2008 and early 2009 come to mind.  While volatility has picked up, we've got a long way to go before we get back to the crazy daily moves we saw a couple years ago.  Below is a chart of the one-month rolling average absolute daily change for the S&P 500.  Over the last month, the average absolute daily change for the S&P has been +/-1.32%.  This is the highest level seen since mid-2009, but it was a routine level in 2008 and less than a third of the peak readings seen in late 2008.  From October to December 2008, the S&P was averaging a daily move of 3.5 to 4.5%.  Yes, recent market action has caused some concern, and it could be the start of something bigger (although we don't think so), but on the market richter scale, where now at about a 3.5 if Q4 2008 was a 10.

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Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.