Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Dow Yield Versus Treasury Yield

There has been quite a bit of chatter recently about the widening spread between the yield on 10-Year Treasuries and the dividend yield for stocks. Currently, the 10-Year Treasury Note is yielding 3.84% versus the Dow's dividend yield of roughly 2.6%. One of the arguments for stocks at the bottom of the bear earlier this year was that they were yielding more than Treasuries. As shown below, that hadn't happened in nearly 50 years. The consensus for 2010 is that stocks will rise (dividend yields lower) while the 10-Year yield will rise as well. This would make the spread tick lower into the "red zone" in the chart below. You be the judge on whether this will be a negative for stocks or not.

Yield10yr

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Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.