Monday, June 23, 2008

Point of No Return or Perfect Buying Opportunity?

The recent declines in many Financial stocks have put them in unprecedented negative territory. Below we highlight historical charts of the percentage from 52-week highs for Lehman (LEH), Wachovia (WB), Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Bank of America (BAC). At its low point earlier this month, Lehman was 72% below its 52-week high, making it the furthest below it has ever been. Wachovia is 68% below its highs over the last year, and Citi got down to 66% below back in March. Merrill Lynch and Bank of America aren't quite at record territory yet, but they're getting close. Back in 1998, Merrill got down to 65% below its 52-week high, and it is at -60% now. In 1990, BAC was 66% below its 52-week high, and it's at -50% now.

The consensus view is that the struggling Financials still have much further to go on the downside before the pain is over. But if they fall much further, they might have dug a hole they can't get out of. Taking a longer-term view of one, two, or even five years from now, will these charts have marked a screaming buy, or a clear sign that the companies were "toast?"

Leh52

Wb52

Citi52

Mer52

Bac52

No comments:

Lunch is for wimps

Lunch is for wimps
It's not a question of enough, pal. It's a zero sum game, somebody wins, somebody loses. Money itself isn't lost or made, it's simply transferred from one perception to another.