Credit Default Risk Down But Still High

Below we highlight a chart of an index that measures the default risk of investment grade credit in the US. Throughout the credit crisis, default risk has risen sharply, although it has ticked lower since peaking in December. Any decline in default risk is a good sign, but it needs to fall much more before anyone can make the claim that things are "settling down." As shown, the index has still not broken below the bottom of its uptrend line that formed back in April 2008.