US Dollar: A Nice Move, But A Long Way To Go

The US Dollar index is now up 16.5% since it bottomed earlier this year, which is a significant rally for a currency that many had begun to jokingly call the US Peso. The Dollar is currently in a very nice short-term uptrend, trading 5.5% above its 50-day moving average and 11% above its 200-day. However, it's important to remember that the currency has a long, long way to go to get back to levels seen in the earlier part of this decade. As shown in the chart below, we need about 5 times the rally we've seen over the past couple of months to get back to 2000 levels. But the Dollar has historically had very long bull and bear market cycles, and once it gets going in one direction, it usually stays on track for quite some time.